Why Not Call A Mandatory Evacuation for All?

By Lisa Yates
Editor


Many wondered why officials did not call for a mandatory evacuation for all residents of Calcasieu Parish prior to Hurricane Ike making landfall, Saturday, Sept. 13.

After all, a mandatory evacuation was called for all residents of the parish prior to Hurricane Gustav. So, why not Ike?

“We make that determination based on information from the National Weather Service,” said Randy Roach, mayor of Lake Charles. “We’re fortunate to have a regional center here in Lake Charles. We rely heavily on forecast information in making those determinations.”

The mayor said the forecast indicated that Hurricane Gustav was predicted to make landfall as a Category 3 storm vs. Hurricane Ike, which was predicted to arrive as a Category 2 storm.

A mandatory evacuation was ordered for special-needs individuals and those living in low-lying areas and mobile homes.

Roach said that determination was made on areas the forecast predicted would be impacted by the storm. “It’s a very, very difficult decision to make,” he said. “You make it, and then you pray that you’ve made the right decision. That’s all you can do.”

Lingering questions about the mandatory evacuation call alerted officials to the need for better communication with the public regarding the entire process.

Mayor Roach explained the three levels of warnings were voluntary, recommended, and mandatory. He said anything there’s a tropical storm in the forecast officials call for a voluntary evacuation. A recommended evacuation is much stronger stressing that dangerous conditions exist.

Dick Gremillion, Director of the Calcasieu Parish Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, said the primary factor in calling for a mandatory evacuation is “to protect human life.”

He said the decision is made by a committee of public officials known as the Executive Policy Group, which is comprised of area sheriffs, six mayors, Calcasieu Parish Police Jury president along with the CPPJ administrator and CPOHSEP director.

Gremillion said based on information received from the National Hurricane Center, officials were convinced that a mandatory evacuation for all in Calcasieu Parish would not be necessary.

“The threat was moderate to severe, but not life threatening,” he said, noting the exception of those residing in low-lying areas, special-needs individuals and people living in mobile homes. Those populations were evacuated safely according to plan.

Then Ike’s course changed suddenly, overnight and the 72-hour deadline for the mandatory evacuation for all had passed.

At the last minute, officials in Galveston ordered a mandatory evacuation for all residents. City officials there were reluctant to order the evacuation and wanted to be sure it was necessary.

When the storm surge in Galveston reached 12-18 feet, officials issued the order. (By comparison, officials Calcasieu Parish reported the storm surge in this area reached between 11-11.5 feet.)

Ike’s erratic behavior changed emergency plans in Galveston in less than a day.

Officials in Galveston took a big risk. Traffic gridlock could have trapped evacuees in the path of the hurricane. It was a difficult call – officials ignored a city plan that provided for evacuation 72 hours before a hurricane was expected to hit the region. Fortunately, the last-minute evacuation in Galveston went smoothly, but it was a gamble.

Police Jury President Tony Stelly said ultimately, people have to make up their own minds when it comes to evacuating.

“When a recommended evacuation is called, people need to think about evacuating,” he said. “Also, they have to remember the decisions we make affect our families, too.”

Stelly said his family evacuated during Hurricane Ike, as recommended.

Gremillion said there is no glory in “riding out the storm” when a recommended evacuation order is given. He said his family evacuated, also.

Mayor Roach said officials have to get away from “an all or nothing approach” when it comes to issuing evacuation orders.

“When we issue evacuation orders, there are retail and medical implications – We have to be careful,” he said. “Also, timing is critical, things have to be done 12-18 hours before the hurricane is predicted to make landfall.”

Gremillion asked everyone to remember one thing before they decide.

“We’re just human beings giving advice based on our best judgment,” he said.